Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

40-28  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Jun 11 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

38-28  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 2.79 -- 1.0 3
Wandy Peralta None-None 4.20 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.79 Ldr ERA 4.20
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
PADRES
100%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

50.6%

Padres Cover

49.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.7%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.37
LOS ANGELES
4.31
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Walks (L5) +31.5% more
San Diego: 5.2 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +28.4% more
San Diego: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season) +21.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.4 5
SD Score 4.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.7 / 8.8 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 7.0 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 12.6 4.0 / 17.0
Walks 5.2 / 4.0 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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