MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
24-40 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
27-40 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 4.18 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.18
ERA
Ldr 4.15
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
PIRATES
0%
MARLINS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.45
MIAMI
Pittsburgh
4.25
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
PIT @ MIA
13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026
PIT @ MIA
2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026
PIT @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026
MIA @ PIT
4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
MIA @ PIT
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.727
OPS
▲
.734
168
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+24.1% more
Pittsburgh: 2.7
vs
Miami: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.0% more
Pittsburgh: 8.3
vs
Miami: 7.2
Hits (L5)
+13.3% more
Pittsburgh: 9.7
vs
Miami: 8.6
Home Runs (Season)
+10.7% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.5
3
PIT Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.6
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.2
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 12.5
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.2
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIA
PIT
MIA
ML
52%
82-77
48%
78-84
52%
85-78
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
81-82
54%
86-74
TTL
47%
72-81-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
79-78-6
53%
82-73-5
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