Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Diamondbacks SEA @ ARI

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

33-32  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jun 10 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

32-34  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Josh Naylor
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Naylor

#12 | First Base
@
Brandon Pfaadt
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Pfaadt

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Naylor None-None -- -- -- --
Brandon Pfaadt None-None 5.50 -- 5.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.50
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
0%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
MARINERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

51.0%

Diamondbacks Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

13.9%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
SEATTLE
3.7
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 ARI @ SEA 2 - 3
May 30, 2026 ARI @ SEA 1 - 5
May 29, 2026 ARI @ SEA 6 - 7
Jun 11, 2025 SEA @ ARI 2 - 5
Jun 10, 2025 SEA @ ARI 3 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.693
OPS
▲ .720
182 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.3% more
Seattle: 10.8 vs Arizona: 7.8
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
Seattle: 0.3 vs Arizona: 0.1
Walks (L5) +21.3% more
Seattle: 4.8 vs Arizona: 3.8
Strikeouts (L5) +14.6% more
Seattle: 10.6 vs Arizona: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.8 3
ARI Score 3.7 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 10.8 13.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 10.6 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 15.0 28.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.8 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SEA
ARI
SEA
ML
54% 87-74
50% 81-81
54% 86-74
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 98-64
56% 89-71
59% 95-67
TTL
52% 80-73-8
56% 85-67-10
49% 73-77-9
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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