CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
33-33 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
34-30 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 3.57 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.45 Ldr
ERA
3.57
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
REDS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.9%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.35
CINCINNATI
Cleveland
4.26
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
CLE @ CIN
6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026
CLE @ CIN
0 - 2
May 17, 2026
CIN @ CLE
3 - 10
May 16, 2026
CIN @ CLE
4 - 7
May 15, 2026
CIN @ CLE
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.699
▲
OPS
.696
213
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.9% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Cleveland: 31.6%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
Cleveland: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Home Runs (L5)
+52.0% more
Cincinnati: 2.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.4
7
CLE Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.6
7.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 8.4
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 14.7
10.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.6
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CIN
CLE
CIN
ML
54%
87-75
55%
88-71
49%
80-83
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
93-69
54%
86-73
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
TTL
56%
89-71-2
53%
81-73-5
44%
70-90-2
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox