MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
24-39 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
26-40 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Triolo
#19 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 4.68 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jared Triolo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.68
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
PIRATES
100%
MARLINS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.49
MIAMI
Pittsburgh
3.47
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
PIT @ MIA
13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026
PIT @ MIA
2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026
PIT @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026
MIA @ PIT
4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
MIA @ PIT
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.727
OPS
▲
.734
168
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+20.1% more
Miami: 8.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+12.8% more
Miami: 12.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.7
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+15.5% more
Pittsburgh: 2.0
vs
Miami: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.5
3
PIT Score
3.5
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.9
15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.8
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 12.3
20.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.0 / 1.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIA
PIT
MIA
ML
52%
82-77
48%
78-84
52%
85-78
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
81-82
54%
86-74
TTL
47%
72-81-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
79-78-6
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom