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INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-0  |  Road

107
FINAL
Sun, Jun 8 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-1  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PACERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Oklahoma City)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

35.2%

Thunder Cover

64.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

IND By 1-7 points

20.4%

IND By 8-14 points

9.6%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.3%

AI Model Projected Score
114.05
INDIANA
117.85
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
INDIANA
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +91.0% more
Oklahoma City: 12.5 vs Indiana: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Oklahoma City: 83.7% vs Indiana: 78.4%
Turnovers (L5) +34.1% more
Indiana: 17.6 vs Oklahoma City: 11.6
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Indiana: 25.5 vs Oklahoma City: 20.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 114.1 107
OKC Score 117.9 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 42.6 38.9 / 35.0
Assists 20.6 / 25.5 25.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.5 / 6.6 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 48.5 48.8 / 45.1
Free Throw % 83.7 / 78.4 87.9 / 73.1
Rebounding 40.3 / 43.4 43.0 / 35.0
Steals 12.5 / 6.6 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 17.6 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
IND
OKC
IND
ML
70% 80-34
48% 47-50
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 57-40
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 52-45
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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