PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
37-27 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
25-40 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.84
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
PIRATES
100%
PHILLIES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.7%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.13
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
3.35
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.724
OPS
▲
.734
3
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+49.3% more
Philadelphia: 3.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Home Runs (Season)
+6100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+40.9% more
Pittsburgh: 8.4
vs
Philadelphia: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.1
1
PIT Score
3.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 5.8
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 6.0
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 9.6
8.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.0
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
52%
82-77
59%
97-67
52%
85-78
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
86-73
65%
107-57
50%
81-82
51%
83-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
57%
88-67-9
50%
79-78-6
51%
78-76-9
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