ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
31-33 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
32-33 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Gallen
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | None-None | 5.15 | -- | 6.2 | 5 |
| Brady Singer | None-None | 4.59 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.15
ERA
Ldr 4.59
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
REDS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
ARI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.7
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
5.7
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720
▲
OPS
.699
166
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+28.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.3
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+9.6% more
Cincinnati: 8.4
vs
Arizona: 7.6
Walks (L5)
+49.5% more
Arizona: 4.8
vs
Cincinnati: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.7
2
CIN Score
5.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.6
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.3
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 13.7
15.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.4 / 4.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARI
CIN
ARI
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
80-73-8
54%
83-72-5
49%
73-77-9
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