HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
36-28 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
33-30 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Okert | None-None | 2.43 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.48 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.43 Ldr
ERA
2.48
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
GUARDIANS
100%
ASTROS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.66
HOUSTON
Cleveland
2.74
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CLE @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
CLE @ HOU
8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026
CLE @ HOU
3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026
HOU @ CLE
2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ CLE
5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.582
OPS
▲
.696
4
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.0% more
Houston: 12.1
vs
Cleveland: 6.6
Home Runs (L5)
+19.5% more
Houston: 1.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+11.3% more
Houston: 4.2
vs
Cleveland: 3.8
Total Bases (L5)
+8.7% more
Houston: 12.1
vs
Cleveland: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.7
2
CLE Score
2.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 7.7
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 12.1
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 12.1
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.8 / 4.2
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
HOU
CLE
HOU
ML
54%
87-74
50%
81-82
49%
80-82
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
45%
70-84-9
43%
69-90-2
45%
69-86-9
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