BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
31-35 | Road
11
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
39-24 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brent Headrick
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.71 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Brent Headrick | None-None | 5.25 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.71 Ldr
ERA
5.25
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
YANKEES
100%
RED SOX
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.9%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.2%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.28
BOSTON
New York
4.17
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+79.4% more
Boston: 1.6
vs
New York: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Boston: 10.5
vs
New York: 8.9
Total Bases (L5)
+14.0% more
Boston: 17.0
vs
New York: 14.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.5% more
Boston: 10.7
vs
New York: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.3
11
NYY Score
4.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 10.5
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
3.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 10.7
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 17.0
20.0 / 29.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.4
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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