Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Cardinals LAD @ STL

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

38-26  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jun 7 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

35-28  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 2
Kyle Leahy None-None 2.34 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA Ldr 2.34
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
DODGERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.5%

Cardinals Cover

59.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.42
LOS ANGELES
5.38
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 STL @ LAD 2 - 3
Sep 2, 2026 STL @ LAD 8 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 STL @ LAD 13 - 8
May 3, 2026 LAD @ STL 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 LAD @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.762 ▲
OPS
.691
204 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.0% more
St. Louis: 1.3 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Walks (L5) +60.9% more
Los Angeles: 4.3 vs St. Louis: 1.7
Home Runs (Season) +18.1% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Hits (L5) +12.8% more
Los Angeles: 9.0 vs St. Louis: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.4 1
STL Score 5.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.0 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 7.0 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 13.5 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.7 / 4.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
LAD
STL
LAD
ML
53% 85-74
56% 92-73
52% 84-77
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 98-67
53% 85-76
43% 72-94
TTL
46% 68-81-10
48% 77-82-6
50% 76-75-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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