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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

37-26  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jun 7 • 4:05 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

24-40  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Marsh
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Marsh

#16 | Left Field
@
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Marsh None-None -- -- -- --
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
PHILLIES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

69.7%

Pirates Cover

30.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

18.5%

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.4%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.91
PHILADELPHIA
2.85
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 PIT @ PHI 6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026 PIT @ PHI 6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026 PIT @ PHI 0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026 PIT @ PHI 11 - 7
May 17, 2026 PHI @ PIT 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.724
OPS
▲ .734
3
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +24.0% more
Philadelphia: 3.0 vs Pittsburgh: 2.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Home Runs (Season) +6100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +35.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.9 1
PIT Score 2.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 6.7 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.4 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 10.4 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
52% 82-77
59% 97-67
52% 85-78
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 86-73
65% 107-57
50% 81-82
51% 83-81
TTL
47% 72-81-6
57% 88-67-9
50% 79-78-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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