Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Giants ATL @ SF

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

27-35  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jun 7 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

36-28  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryce Elder None-None 4.08 -- 8.0 12
Logan Webb None-None 2.58 -- 6.0 10
None-None W-L None-None
4.08 ERA Ldr 2.58
-- WHIP --
8.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
12 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 10
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
📊
GIANTS
100%
BRAVES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

59.0%

Giants Cover

41.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.5%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

16.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.97
ATLANTA
3.06
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Francisco SF
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757 ▲
OPS
.706
1
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +74.6% more
Atlanta: 1.3 vs San Francisco: 0.3
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Atlanta: 0.9 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +21.6% more
Atlanta: 12.7 vs San Francisco: 10.0
Runs per Game (Season) +17.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 2
SF Score 3.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.5 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.7 10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 12.7 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.0 / 4.3 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ATL
SF
ATL
ML
49% 79-81
46% 77-90
53% 85-75
54% 90-78
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 96-71
52% 83-77
52% 87-81
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 83-73-11
46% 68-81-11
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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