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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

31-32  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jun 7 • 4:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

31-33  |  Home

13
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Thompson None-None 5.47 -- 1.1 3
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.58 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
5.47 ERA Ldr 3.58
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
📊
REDS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

52.1%

Reds Cover

47.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.8%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.1%

CIN By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
ARIZONA
4.49
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 CIN @ ARI 3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 CIN @ ARI 11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026 CIN @ ARI 0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026 ARI @ CIN 5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 ARI @ CIN 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720 ▲
OPS
.699
166
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +42.4% more
Arizona: 3.8 vs Cincinnati: 2.2
Home Runs (L5) +40.0% more
Arizona: 2.0 vs Cincinnati: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +20.0% more
Arizona: 15.5 vs Cincinnati: 12.4
Hits (L5) +11.3% more
Arizona: 8.0 vs Cincinnati: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.7 1
CIN Score 4.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.0 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 9.5 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 15.5 19.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.8 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARI
CIN
ARI
ML
55% 88-71
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 80-80
56% 89-71
TTL
53% 81-73-5
52% 80-73-8
54% 83-72-5
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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