SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
36-26 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
34-30 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 2.17 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.95 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.17 Ldr
ERA
2.95
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
BREWERS
100%
PADRES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.8%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.3%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.32
SAN DIEGO
Milwaukee
4.06
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.14
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.341
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925
▲
OPS
.743
4
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
OPS (Season)
+18.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.0%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Walks (L5)
+15.3% more
San Diego: 4.2
vs
Milwaukee: 3.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Milwaukee: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.3
3
MIL Score
4.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.2
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.3
10.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.4
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.6 / 4.2
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SD
MIL
SD
ML
62%
101-61
51%
85-83
52%
84-78
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
91-77
48%
78-84
55%
92-75
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-77-8
54%
86-74-6
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