PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
37-25 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
23-40 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Triolo
#19 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Jared Triolo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.16
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
PIRATES
100%
PHILLIES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.73
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
2.88
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.724
OPS
▲
.734
3
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+61.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+23.2% more
Philadelphia: 2.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.9
Total Bases (L5)
+13.3% more
Philadelphia: 10.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.2
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.7
4
PIT Score
2.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 6.6
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 5.7
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 10.6
21.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
52%
82-77
59%
97-67
52%
85-78
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
86-73
65%
107-57
50%
81-82
51%
83-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
57%
88-67-9
50%
79-78-6
51%
78-76-9
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