Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Guardians HOU @ CLE

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

34-28  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jun 6 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

33-28  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Hader None-None 1.33 -- 1.0 2
Tim Herrin None-None 3.63 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.33 Ldr ERA 3.63
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
GUARDIANS
100%
ASTROS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

62.1%

Guardians Cover

37.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.9%

CLE By 1-2 runs

15.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
HOUSTON
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 CLE @ HOU 1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026 CLE @ HOU 8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026 CLE @ HOU 3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026 HOU @ CLE 2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ CLE 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Cleveland CLE
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.582
OPS
▲ .696
4
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +38.5% more
Houston: 1.3 vs Cleveland: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +32.5% more
Houston: 11.4 vs Cleveland: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +18.0% more
Houston: 13.2 vs Cleveland: 10.8
Hits (L5) +9.2% more
Houston: 7.8 vs Cleveland: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.2 4
CLE Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 7.8 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 11.4 4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 13.2 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.1 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
HOU
CLE
HOU
ML
54% 87-74
50% 81-82
49% 80-82
47% 77-87
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 91-72
59% 95-67
55% 90-74
TTL
55% 88-71-2
45% 70-84-9
43% 69-90-2
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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