ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
31-31 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
30-33 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 5.47 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.58 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.47
ERA
Ldr 3.58
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
REDS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.2%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.88
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
4.3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720
▲
OPS
.699
166
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+60.4% more
Arizona: 1.9
vs
Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+39.8% more
Arizona: 16.7
vs
Cincinnati: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+31.9% more
Arizona: 8.9
vs
Cincinnati: 6.1
Walks (L5)
+24.3% more
Arizona: 3.6
vs
Cincinnati: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.9
3
CIN Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 8.9
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 9.3
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 16.7
17.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.6
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARI
CIN
ARI
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
80-73-8
54%
83-72-5
49%
73-77-9
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