TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
33-29 | Road
6
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
34-28 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 1.55 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 3.78 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.55 Ldr
ERA
3.78
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
TWINS
100%
BLUE JAYS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.8%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.1
TORONTO
Minnesota
3.88
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ MIN
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
TOR @ MIN
11 - 4
May 1, 2026
TOR @ MIN
7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026
TOR @ MIN
1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026
MIN @ TOR
8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.692
OPS
▲
.720
152
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+17.2% more
Toronto: 10.0
vs
Minnesota: 8.3
Total Bases (L5)
+16.5% more
Toronto: 16.6
vs
Minnesota: 13.8
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Toronto: 0.2
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.1
6
MIN Score
3.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 10.0
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 9.0
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 16.6
12.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.7
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TOR
MIN
TOR
ML
52%
84-78
46%
74-87
50%
80-81
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-67
56%
90-71
59%
95-66
49%
79-81
TTL
51%
78-75-9
51%
80-76-5
53%
80-72-9
45%
70-85-5
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