SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
35-26 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
34-29 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.77
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
BREWERS
0%
PADRES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
SD By 1-2 runs
17.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
12.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.41
SAN DIEGO
Milwaukee
4.79
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.14
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.341
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925
▲
OPS
.743
4
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+3750.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+125.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.7
vs
San Diego: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+48.3% more
Milwaukee: 16.6
vs
San Diego: 11.2
Hits (L5)
+18.3% more
Milwaukee: 9.8
vs
San Diego: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.4
2
MIL Score
4.8
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.3
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.5
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 11.2
4.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.4
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SD
MIL
SD
ML
62%
101-61
51%
85-83
52%
84-78
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
91-77
48%
78-84
55%
92-75
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-77-8
54%
86-74-6
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