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INDIANA

PACERSIND

0-0  |  Road

111
FINAL
Thu, Jun 5 • 8:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-0  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PACERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Oklahoma City)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

29.2%

Thunder Cover

70.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

IND By 1-7 points

17.8%

IND By 8-14 points

7.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.7%

AI Model Projected Score
113.49
INDIANA
118.98
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
INDIANA
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.2% more
Oklahoma City: 11.8 vs Indiana: 9.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
Oklahoma City: 41.0 vs Indiana: 37.1
Blocks (L5) +17.9% more
Indiana: 6.4 vs Oklahoma City: 5.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Indiana: 40.8% vs Oklahoma City: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 113.5 111
OKC Score 119.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 40.8 36.7 / 46.2
Assists 24.5 / 26.2 13.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.3 / 6.4 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 49.0 39.8 / 47.6
Free Throw % 81.7 / 81.9 87.5 / 71.4
Rebounding 41.0 / 37.1 39.0 / 56.0
Steals 11.8 / 9.4 14.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 13.9 7.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
IND
OKC
IND
ML
70% 80-34
48% 47-50
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 57-40
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 52-45
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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