ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
30-31 | Road
11
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
27-33 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.65 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.65 Ldr
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
BRAVES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.3%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
ATL By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.5
ARIZONA
Atlanta
3.87
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
166
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+51.8% more
Arizona: 1.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Arizona: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.0
Total Bases (L5)
+35.6% more
Arizona: 13.1
vs
Atlanta: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.5
11
ATL Score
3.9
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 7.4
13.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 9.4
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 13.1
27.0 / 24.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.4
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
ARI
ATL
ARI
ML
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
80-73-8
49%
76-80-11
49%
73-77-9
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