BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
24-36 | Road
4
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
32-28 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.22 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.59 Ldr
ERA
2.22
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
MARINERS
100%
ORIOLES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
SEA By 1-2 runs
14.9%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.55
BALTIMORE
Seattle
3.03
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Seattle
SEA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.711
▲
OPS
.693
199
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.7% more
Baltimore: 9.9
vs
Seattle: 7.7
Total Bases (L5)
+17.7% more
Baltimore: 12.2
vs
Seattle: 10.1
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Baltimore: 0.3
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+12.5% more
Baltimore: 7.7
vs
Seattle: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.6
4
SEA Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 7.7
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.9
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 12.2
14.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.5
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BAL
SEA
BAL
ML
50%
81-81
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-75-6
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