HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
33-28 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
23-39 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.61 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.13 | -- | 6.1 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.61 Ldr
ERA
4.13
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
PIRATES
0%
ASTROS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
11.7%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
2.96
HOUSTON
Pittsburgh
3.6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
PIT @ HOU
5 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
PIT @ HOU
9 - 11
Jun 2, 2026
PIT @ HOU
10 - 6
Jun 5, 2025
HOU @ PIT
8 - 2
Jun 4, 2025
HOU @ PIT
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.582
OPS
▲
.734
4
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4550.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+57.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+15.2%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Hits (L5)
+12.5% more
Pittsburgh: 7.6
vs
Houston: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.0
8
PIT Score
3.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 6.7
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.1
7.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 10.8
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.6
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
HOU
PIT
HOU
ML
52%
82-77
50%
81-82
52%
85-78
47%
77-87
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-72
50%
81-82
55%
90-74
TTL
47%
72-81-6
45%
70-84-9
50%
79-78-6
45%
69-86-9
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