TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
29-33 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
32-29 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 2.95 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.95 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
RAYS
0%
RANGERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.2%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.4%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.77
TEXAS
Tampa Bay
5.21
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TB @ TEX
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
TB @ TEX
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026
TEX @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.728
183
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.5
vs
Texas: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.0
vs
Texas: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+40.6% more
Tampa Bay: 14.5
vs
Texas: 10.3
Hits (L5)
+18.4% more
Tampa Bay: 8.1
vs
Texas: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.8
3
TB Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.8
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.0
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 10.3
11.0 / 17.0
Walks
1.6 / 2.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TEX
TB
TEX
ML
58%
95-68
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
57%
91-70
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
92-70
55%
90-73
61%
98-63
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
78-70-14
51%
78-75-10
55%
81-66-14
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