KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
32-30 | Road
7
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
34-27 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 6.23 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.20 Ldr
ERA
6.23
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
ROYALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
14.8%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.13
KANSAS CITY
St. Louis
3.71
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.718
▲
OPS
.691
170
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.7% more
Kansas City: 3.6
vs
St. Louis: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.5% more
Kansas City: 8.8
vs
St. Louis: 7.2
Hits (L5)
+14.9% more
Kansas City: 9.8
vs
St. Louis: 8.3
OPS (Season)
+2.7%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.1
7
STL Score
3.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.8
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.8
4.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 13.5
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
KC
STL
KC
ML
53%
85-74
55%
89-72
52%
84-77
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
58%
93-67
TTL
46%
68-81-10
58%
90-64-7
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-70-7
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