COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
11-50 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
23-36 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 5.19 | -- | 6.1 | 4 |
| Janson Junk | None-None | 1.38 | -- | 4.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.19
ERA
Ldr 1.38
--
WHIP
--
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
0%
MARLINS
100%
ROCKIES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.1
COLORADO
Miami
2.8
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Miami
4
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
MIA @ COL
4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026
MIA @ COL
3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
MIA @ COL
14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
MIA @ COL
10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026
COL @ MIA
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739
▲
OPS
.727
180
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+86.3% more
Colorado: 1.3
vs
Miami: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+27.8% more
Colorado: 3.0
vs
Miami: 2.1
Total Bases (L5)
+17.7% more
Colorado: 12.5
vs
Miami: 10.3
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Colorado: 0.7
vs
Miami: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.1
3
MIA Score
2.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.3
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.3
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 12.5
7.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.0
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
COL
MIA
COL
ML
48%
78-84
60%
97-64
55%
88-72
55%
88-73
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
97-64
54%
86-74
52%
83-78
TTL
56%
88-69-5
60%
93-62-6
53%
82-73-5
50%
77-78-6
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