HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
33-27 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
22-39 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mike Burrows
#50 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows | None-None | 5.27 | -- | 5.1 | 6 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.27
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
PIRATES
100%
ASTROS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.9%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.09
HOUSTON
Pittsburgh
2.84
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
PIT @ HOU
5 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
PIT @ HOU
9 - 11
Jun 2, 2026
PIT @ HOU
10 - 6
Jun 5, 2025
HOU @ PIT
8 - 2
Jun 4, 2025
HOU @ PIT
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.582
OPS
▲
.734
4
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.4% more
Houston: 1.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.0% more
Houston: 10.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.6
Walks (L5)
+18.5% more
Houston: 2.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.3
Home Runs (Season)
+4550.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.1
0
PIT Score
2.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 6.6
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 10.1
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 11.6
10.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
HOU
PIT
HOU
ML
52%
82-77
50%
81-82
52%
85-78
47%
77-87
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-72
50%
81-82
55%
90-74
TTL
47%
72-81-6
45%
70-84-9
50%
79-78-6
45%
69-86-9
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