BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
23-36 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
32-27 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.58 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.31 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.58
ERA
Ldr 2.31
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
MARINERS
100%
ORIOLES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
14.4%
SEA By 3-4 runs
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.68
BALTIMORE
Seattle
2.96
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Seattle
SEA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.711
▲
OPS
.693
199
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.5% more
Baltimore: 9.4
vs
Seattle: 7.0
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Baltimore: 0.5
vs
Seattle: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+20.3% more
Baltimore: 9.5
vs
Seattle: 7.6
Total Bases (L5)
+12.7% more
Baltimore: 13.8
vs
Seattle: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.7
3
SEA Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.5
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.4
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 13.8
6.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.3
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BAL
SEA
BAL
ML
50%
81-81
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-75-6
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