ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
28-31 | Road
8
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
27-31 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Harris II
#23 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 5.87 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Michael Harris II | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.87
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
BRAVES
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.92
ARIZONA
Atlanta
4.14
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
166
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.8% more
Atlanta: 11.7
vs
Arizona: 8.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.6% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.1%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.9
8
ATL Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.4
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
11.7 / 8.9
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 12.9
9.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.5
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
ARI
ATL
ARI
ML
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
80-73-8
49%
76-80-11
49%
73-77-9
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