KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
31-29 | Road
10
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
33-26 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 1.77 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.77 Ldr
ERA
3.48
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
ROYALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.9%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.6
KANSAS CITY
St. Louis
3.91
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.718
▲
OPS
.691
170
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+11.0% more
St. Louis: 0.3
vs
Kansas City: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+9.8% more
St. Louis: 3.1
vs
Kansas City: 2.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.2% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.6
10
STL Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.5 / 8.2
12.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.2
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 10.2
21.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.9
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
KC
STL
KC
ML
53%
85-74
55%
89-72
52%
84-77
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
58%
93-67
TTL
46%
68-81-10
58%
90-64-7
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-70-7
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