BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
22-36 | Road
5
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
32-26 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Leody Taveras
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leody Taveras | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 3.94 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.94
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
MARINERS
100%
ORIOLES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.1%
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.18
BALTIMORE
Seattle
3.27
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Seattle
SEA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.711
▲
OPS
.693
199
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Seattle: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.6% more
Baltimore: 10.0
vs
Seattle: 8.5
Home Runs (Season)
+8.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Seattle: 182.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.1% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.2
5
SEA Score
3.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.8
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 10.0
4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.2
10.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.0
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BAL
SEA
BAL
ML
50%
81-81
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-75-6
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