Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Dodgers NYM @ LAD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

38-22  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jun 3 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

36-24  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Tanner Scott None-None 4.55 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.55
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
METS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

38.9%

Dodgers Cover

61.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.2%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.33
NEW YORK
5.46
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.705
OPS
▲ .762
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +35.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.2 vs New York: 3.1
Hits (L5) +31.9% more
Los Angeles: 10.3 vs New York: 7.8
Total Bases (L5) +17.0% more
Los Angeles: 18.3 vs New York: 15.7
Runs per Game (Season) +14.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.3 5
LAD Score 5.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.3 / 7.8 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 9.1 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 18.3 / 15.7 16.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
NYM
LAD
NYM
ML
56% 92-73
50% 79-80
48% 79-87
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-66
43% 72-94
49% 78-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 80-66-13
44% 70-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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