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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

4-0  |  Road

137
FINAL
Fri, Nov 1 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

2-3  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
THUNDER --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

61.9%

Trail Blazers Cover

38.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.2%

POR By 1-7 points

21.6%

POR By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
105.13
OKLAHOMA CITY
102.11
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
125
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 207.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.2% more
Oklahoma City: 14.2 vs Portland: 8.4
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
Oklahoma City: 8.0 vs Portland: 6.0
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
Oklahoma City: 25.9 vs Portland: 21.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Oklahoma City: 45.9% vs Portland: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 105.1 137
POR Score 102.1 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 34.7 42.9 / 38.8
Assists 21.1 / 25.9 27.0 / 31.0
Blocks 6.0 / 8.0 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 45.9 47.0 / 53.7
Free Throw % 80.7 / 73.7 67.7 / 84.2
Rebounding 47.1 / 44.9 36.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.4 / 14.2 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 12.2 19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
OKC
POR
OKC
ML
53% 56-49
70% 80-34
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
ATS
62% 65-39-1
73% 83-30-1
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
TTL
56% 58-46-1
67% 76-38
100% 89-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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