Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Thunder ORL @ OKC

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

3-4  |  Road

86
FINAL
Mon, Nov 4 • 9:15 PM ET
Paycom Center
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

6-0  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
MAGIC --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (Oklahoma City)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

16.1%

Thunder Cover

83.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

ORL By 1-7 points

10.8%

ORL By 8-14 points

3.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

23.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
103.08
ORLANDO
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
109
ORLANDO
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.9
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 216.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 OKC @ ORL 113 - 108
Feb 3, 2026 ORL @ OKC 92 - 128
Dec 19, 2024 OKC @ ORL 105 - 99
Nov 4, 2024 ORL @ OKC 86 - 102
Feb 13, 2024 OKC @ ORL 127 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.7% more
Oklahoma City: 13.1 vs Orlando: 8.8
Blocks (L5) +24.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Orlando: 5.3
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Oklahoma City: 26.7 vs Orlando: 23.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.7%
Oklahoma City: 37.7% vs Orlando: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 103.1 86
OKC Score 113.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 28.0 38.7 / 14.7
Assists 26.7 / 23.2 23.0 / 20.0
Blocks 6.6 / 5.3 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 40.8 45.9 / 35.4
Free Throw % 81.3 / 76.2 75.0 / 85.2
Rebounding 43.6 / 42.5 42.0 / 41.0
Steals 13.1 / 8.8 12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 14.7 17.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
ORL
OKC
ORL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 65-42
48% 46-49
56% 51-40
ATS
73% 83-30-1
64% 68-38-1
48% 46-49
56% 51-40
TTL
67% 76-38
57% 61-46
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 1 minute ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 49 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 5 hours, 56 minutes ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day ago
Orlando Magic Preseason: Three Players with the Most to Gain Und…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago