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HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

5-3  |  Road

107
FINAL
Fri, Nov 8 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

7-1  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
THUNDER
100%
ROCKETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

59.0%

Thunder Cover

41.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

27.0%

HOU By 8-14 points

19.0%

OKC By 1-7 points

22.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
115.08
HOUSTON
112.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
109
HOUSTON
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 HOU @ OKC 112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026 OKC @ HOU 111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025 HOU @ OKC 124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025 OKC @ HOU 111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 HOU @ OKC 128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Houston: 48.2% vs Oklahoma City: 45.6%
Steals (L5) +75.7% more
Oklahoma City: 13.5 vs Houston: 7.7
Turnovers (L5) +19.2% more
Oklahoma City: 13.9 vs Houston: 11.7
Blocks (L5) +17.2% more
Oklahoma City: 5.8 vs Houston: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 115.1 107
OKC Score 112.8 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 32.1 37.8 / 36.7
Assists 26.7 / 24.3 24.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.0 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 48.2 51.1 / 43.3
Free Throw % 78.9 / 72.4 87.0 / 69.2
Rebounding 44.4 / 47.4 41.0 / 48.0
Steals 13.5 / 7.7 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 11.7 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
HOU
OKC
HOU
ML
70% 80-34
61% 69-44
48% 46-49
59% 51-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 70-43
48% 46-49
59% 51-35
TTL
67% 76-38
51% 58-55
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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