PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
9-3 | Road
83
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
10-2 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.7 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
PHX By 1-7 points
9.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.9%
OKC By 1-7 points
22.1%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
110.22
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
120.91
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.7
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+48.6% more
Oklahoma City: 13.0
vs
Phoenix: 8.8
Blocks (L5)
+27.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.3
vs
Phoenix: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.4%
Oklahoma City: 84.5%
vs
Phoenix: 75.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Oklahoma City: 46.9%
vs
Phoenix: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
110.2
83
OKC Score
120.9
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 36.4
25.0 / 24.3
Assists
24.9 / 24.8
21.0 / 17.0
Blocks
6.3 / 4.9
11.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 44.1
39.6 / 29.3
Free Throw %
84.5 / 75.1
94.4 / 75.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 42.7
53.0 / 50.0
Steals
13.0 / 8.8
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.1
11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70%
80-34
57%
60-45
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
59-43-3
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
61-42-2
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
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