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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

6-7  |  Road

121
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 7:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

11-2  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
MAVERICKS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Oklahoma City)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

26.2%

Thunder Cover

73.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.7%

AI Model Projected Score
110.42
DALLAS
116.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
109
DALLAS
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.0% more
Oklahoma City: 7.9 vs Dallas: 5.9
Steals (L5) +26.8% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7 vs Dallas: 8.4
Free Throw % (L5) +10.8%
Oklahoma City: 87.8% vs Dallas: 77.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Oklahoma City: 33.6% vs Dallas: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 110.4 121
OKC Score 116.8 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 30.0 33.3 / 40.7
Assists 23.6 / 25.8 29.0 / 18.0
Blocks 7.9 / 5.9 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 49.6 49.4 / 47.6
Free Throw % 87.8 / 77.0 76.0 / 83.3
Rebounding 41.4 / 42.8 29.0 / 53.0
Steals 10.7 / 8.4 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 14.9 8.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DAL
OKC
DAL
ML
70% 80-34
62% 63-39
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
ATS
73% 83-30-1
67% 68-34
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 60-41-1
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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