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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

6-8  |  Road

99
FINAL
Wed, Nov 20 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

11-4  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.3 points (Oklahoma City)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

12.9%

Thunder Cover

87.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

POR By 1-7 points

8.9%

POR By 8-14 points

2.5%

OKC By 1-7 points

21.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
106.04
PORTLAND
117.34
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.3
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Oklahoma City: 84.5% vs Portland: 77.0%
Turnovers (L5) +42.5% more
Portland: 19.3 vs Oklahoma City: 11.1
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
Portland: 8.0 vs Oklahoma City: 5.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Portland: 35.4% vs Oklahoma City: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 106.0 99
OKC Score 117.3 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 35.4 29.0 / 39.5
Assists 24.9 / 24.0 24.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.9 / 8.0 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 45.5 44.0 / 40.5
Free Throw % 84.5 / 77.0 87.0 / 71.4
Rebounding 40.5 / 41.9 46.0 / 49.0
Steals 12.5 / 12.4 14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 19.3 14.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
POR
OKC
POR
ML
70% 80-34
53% 56-49
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 65-39-1
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
TTL
67% 76-38
56% 58-46-1
100% 95-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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