VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
11-6-0 | Road
3
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
8-9-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Shea Theodore
#27 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 3.09 | 0.906 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.09
--
Save %
0.906
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
67%
SENATORS
33%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
18.5%
VGK By 2-3 goals
21.7%
OTT By 1 goal
16.2%
OTT By 2-3 goals
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.37
VEGAS
Ottawa
2.09
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.3
C
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.5
A
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
VGK @ OTT
1 - 7
Nov 26, 2025
OTT @ VGK
4 - 3
Nov 21, 2024
VGK @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 25, 2024
OTT @ VGK
4 - 6
Feb 24, 2024
VGK @ OTT
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+12.1% more
Vegas: 16.2
vs
Ottawa: 14.3
Power Play % (L5)
+9.3%
Vegas: 19.0%
vs
Ottawa: 9.8%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.5% more
Vegas: 33.9
vs
Ottawa: 31.0
Hits (L5)
+14.2% more
Ottawa: 30.1
vs
Vegas: 26.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.4
3
OTT Score
2.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.3 / 16.2
11.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
52.7 / 50.3
56.5 / 43.5
Hits
30.1 / 26.3
36.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
9.8 / 19.0
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.0 / 33.9
40.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 5.6
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
VGK
OTT
VGK
ML
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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