Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Vikings NYJ @ MIN

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

4-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 9:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

4-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Harrison Phillips
KEY GAME

Harrison Phillips

#97 | Defensive Tackle
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Harrison Phillips None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
VIKINGS
0%
JETS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Minnesota)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

29.3%

Vikings Cover

70.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NYJ By 1-6 points

12.4%

NYJ By 7-13 points

9.1%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.3%

MIN By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.48
NEW YORK
23.09
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
23
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2024 NYJ @ MIN 17 - 23
Dec 4, 2022 NYJ @ MIN 22 - 27
Oct 21, 2018 MIN @ NYJ 37 - 17
Dec 7, 2014 NYJ @ MIN 24 - 30
Oct 11, 2010 MIN @ NYJ 20 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +103.0% more
Minnesota: 1.9 vs New York: 0.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +28.7% more
Minnesota: 5.8 vs New York: 4.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Minnesota: 115.5 vs New York: 97.4
Total Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Minnesota: 346.1 vs New York: 293.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 15.5 17
MIN Score 23.1 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 18.3 17.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 230.6 / 196.0 171.0 / 218.0
Rushing Yards 115.5 / 97.4 82.0 / 36.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 346.1 / 293.4 253.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.5 3.8 / 3.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYJ
MIN
NYJ
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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