Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Commanders CLE @ WSH

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Noah Igbinoghene
KEY GAME

Noah Igbinoghene

#20 | Cornerback
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Noah Igbinoghene None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
BROWNS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Cleveland)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

66.0%

Commanders Cover

34.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CLE -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-6 points

16.7%

CLE By 7-13 points

18.9%

WSH By 1-6 points

13.7%

WSH By 7-13 points

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
23.19
CLEVELAND
17.42
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
17
CLEVELAND
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Browns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Browns (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2024 CLE @ WSH 13 - 34
Jan 1, 2023 CLE @ WSH 24 - 10
Sep 27, 2020 WSH @ CLE 20 - 34
Oct 2, 2016 CLE @ WSH 20 - 31
Dec 16, 2012 WSH @ CLE 38 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.7% more
Cleveland: 1.4 vs Washington: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +74.7% more
Washington: 156.8 vs Cleveland: 89.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +41.8% more
Washington: 5.9 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Total Yards (L5) +41.0% more
Washington: 369.0 vs Cleveland: 261.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 23.2 13
WSH Score 17.4 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 16.4 19.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 212.3 / 171.9 219.0 / 108.0
Rushing Yards 156.8 / 89.7 215.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 369.0 / 261.6 434.0 / 212.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 4.2 6.7 / 3.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CLE
WSH
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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