Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Patriots MIA @ NE

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-3  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Josh Uche
KEY GAME

Josh Uche

#9 | Linebacker
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Josh Uche None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
DOLPHINS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

65.0%

Patriots Cover

35.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.8%

MIA By 7-13 points

18.7%

NE By 1-6 points

13.9%

NE By 7-13 points

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
19.07
MIAMI
13.68
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
17
MIAMI
28
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.4
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MIA @ NE 10 - 38
Sep 14, 2025 NE @ MIA 33 - 27
Nov 24, 2024 NE @ MIA 15 - 34
Oct 6, 2024 MIA @ NE 15 - 10
Oct 29, 2023 NE @ MIA 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Miami: 160.9 vs New England: 118.6
Total Yards (L5) +14.6% more
Miami: 259.9 vs New England: 222.0
First Downs (L5) +13.7% more
Miami: 15.3 vs New England: 13.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.0% more
Miami: 4.3 vs New England: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 19.1 15
NE Score 13.7 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.2 / 15.3 15.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 118.6 / 160.9 148.0 / 179.0
Rushing Yards 103.5 / 99.0 151.0 / 193.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 222.0 / 259.9 299.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 3.8 / 4.3 5.4 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
MIA
NE
MIA
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 2 hours, 3 minutes ago
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 2 hours, 10 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 2 hours, 10 minutes ago
Bengals Defender Exposes Malik Willis's Pre-Throw Tic Before Dol…
bleacherreport 2 hours, 12 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 2 hours, 14 minutes ago