Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Broncos LV @ DEN

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

2-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
RAIDERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Las Vegas)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

56.0%

Broncos Cover

44.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LV -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

LV By 1-6 points

16.9%

LV By 7-13 points

16.9%

DEN By 1-6 points

15.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.11
LAS VEGAS
18.98
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
23
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raiders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 DEN @ LV 24 - 17
Nov 6, 2025 LV @ DEN 7 - 10
Nov 24, 2024 DEN @ LV 29 - 19
Oct 6, 2024 LV @ DEN 18 - 34
Jan 7, 2024 DEN @ LV 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.8% more
Las Vegas: 198.1 vs Denver: 157.0
First Downs (L5) +18.6% more
Las Vegas: 18.0 vs Denver: 14.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.8% more
Las Vegas: 5.0 vs Denver: 4.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.1% more
Las Vegas: 294.5 vs Denver: 264.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 21.1 18
DEN Score 19.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.7 / 18.0 18.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 157.0 / 198.1 180.0 / 215.0
Rushing Yards 107.7 / 96.4 109.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 264.7 / 294.5 289.0 / 330.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 5.0 5.0 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LV
DEN
LV
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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