NEW ORLEANS
SAINTSNO
2-2 | Road
13
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFSKC
4-0 | Home
26
Key Game
KEY GAME
Justin Reid
#21 | Safety@
KEY GAME
Matt Araiza
#14 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Justin Reid | None-None |
| Matt Araiza | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
CHIEFS
100%
SAINTS
--
CHIEFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
NO By 1-6 points
16.9%
NO By 7-13 points
17.1%
KC By 1-6 points
15.5%
KC By 7-13 points
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
23.82
NEW ORLEANS
Kansas City
21.34
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
New Orleans
27
NEW ORLEANS
Kansas City
23
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Saints
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Saints (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Saints (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 45.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2024
NO @ KC
13 - 26
Dec 20, 2020
KC @ NO
32 - 29
Oct 23, 2016
NO @ KC
21 - 27
Sep 23, 2012
KC @ NO
27 - 24
Nov 16, 2008
NO @ KC
30 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+12.3% more
New Orleans: 131.2
vs
Kansas City: 115.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+8.0% more
New Orleans: 0.5
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Turnovers (L5)
+36.9% more
Kansas City: 1.7
vs
New Orleans: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
23.8
13
KC Score
21.3
26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.4 / 21.0
28.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards
223.4 / 208.9
321.0 / 174.0
Rushing Yards
115.1 / 131.2
139.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.43 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards
338.5 / 340.1
460.0 / 220.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
5.5 / 5.4
5.8 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -3.1
KC
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -3.1
KC
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +11.5
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NO
KC
NO
ML
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
ATS
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
TTL
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
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