Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Raiders PIT @ LV

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

3-2  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
STEELERS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

57.8%

Raiders Cover

42.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

16.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

17.3%

LV By 1-6 points

15.4%

LV By 7-13 points

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
19.63
PITTSBURGH
16.89
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
17
PITTSBURGH
23
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2024 PIT @ LV 32 - 13
Sep 24, 2023 PIT @ LV 23 - 18
Dec 24, 2022 LV @ PIT 10 - 13
Sep 19, 2021 LV @ PIT 26 - 17
Dec 9, 2018 PIT @ LV 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Pittsburgh: 115.0 vs Las Vegas: 102.6
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Las Vegas: 1.7 vs Pittsburgh: 1.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Las Vegas: 203.8 vs Pittsburgh: 188.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 19.6 32
LV Score 16.9 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 18.9 16.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 203.8 / 188.1 218.0 / 110.0
Rushing Yards 102.6 / 115.0 57.0 / 183.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 306.3 / 303.1 275.0 / 293.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.8 4.6 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
PIT
LV
PIT
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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