LOS ANGELES
CHARGERSLAC
2-2 | Road
23
DENVER
BRONCOSDEN
3-2 | Home
16
Key Game
KEY GAME
JK Scott
#16 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Wil Lutz
#3 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| JK Scott | None-None |
| Wil Lutz | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
BRONCOS
0%
CHARGERS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
LAC By 1-6 points
10.0%
LAC By 7-13 points
6.6%
DEN By 1-6 points
14.7%
DEN By 7-13 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
14.24
LOS ANGELES
Denver
25.24
DENVER
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
20
LOS ANGELES
Denver
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 39.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
LAC @ DEN
3 - 19
Sep 21, 2025
DEN @ LAC
20 - 23
Dec 19, 2024
DEN @ LAC
27 - 34
Oct 13, 2024
LAC @ DEN
23 - 16
Dec 31, 2023
LAC @ DEN
9 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.0% more
Denver: 0.9
vs
Los Angeles: 0.6
First Downs (L5)
+11.6% more
Denver: 15.8
vs
Los Angeles: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAC Score
14.2
23
DEN Score
25.2
16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
15.8 / 14.1
17.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards
164.7 / 155.8
206.0 / 222.0
Rushing Yards
108.1 / 100.9
110.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.3
0.27 / 0.61
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards
272.8 / 256.8
316.0 / 350.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
4.6 / 4.5
6.0 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -9.8
ATS +/-: -10.3
DEN
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -9.8
ATS +/-: -10.3
DEN
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -3.0
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
LAC
DEN
LAC
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
4-0
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
0%
0-3-1
TTL
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
Rams' Special Teams Crisis: A 2026 Season Breakdown and How to F…
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…