Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Cowboys DET @ DAL

DETROIT

LIONSDET

3-1  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 4:25 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-2  |  Home

9
Key Game
Damone Clark
KEY GAME

Damone Clark

#11 | Linebacker
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Damone Clark None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
LIONS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Dallas)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

31.9%

Cowboys Cover

68.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DET By 1-6 points

13.1%

DET By 7-13 points

9.9%

DAL By 1-6 points

16.6%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
20.34
DETROIT
26.94
DALLAS
Simulated Score
27
DETROIT
31
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 4, 2025 DAL @ DET 30 - 44
Oct 13, 2024 DET @ DAL 47 - 9
Dec 30, 2023 DET @ DAL 19 - 20
Oct 23, 2022 DET @ DAL 6 - 24
Nov 17, 2019 DAL @ DET 35 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +79.0% more
Dallas: 1.5 vs Detroit: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Dallas: 293.0 vs Detroit: 252.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.3% more
Detroit: 143.2 vs Dallas: 89.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.7% more
Detroit: 6.4 vs Dallas: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 20.3 47
DAL Score 26.9 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 23.0 16.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 293.0 / 252.9 198.0 / 308.0
Rushing Yards 89.7 / 143.2 53.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.23 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 382.7 / 396.0 251.0 / 492.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 5.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 6.4 3.9 / 7.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DET
DAL
DET
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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