Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Jets BUF @ NYJ

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

3-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Mon, Oct 14 • 8:15 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
@
Isaiah Davis
KEY GAME

Isaiah Davis

#32 | Running Back
Player
Tyler Bass None-None
Isaiah Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
JETS
100%
BILLS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

59.0%

Jets Cover

41.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

17.6%

NYJ By 1-6 points

15.2%

NYJ By 7-13 points

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
23.16
BUFFALO
19.96
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 NYJ @ BUF 8 - 35
Sep 14, 2025 BUF @ NYJ 30 - 10
Dec 29, 2024 NYJ @ BUF 14 - 40
Oct 14, 2024 BUF @ NYJ 23 - 20
Nov 19, 2023 NYJ @ BUF 6 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.3% more
Buffalo: 126.7 vs New York: 76.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.3% more
Buffalo: 5.1 vs New York: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +120.0% more
New York: 1.6 vs Buffalo: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
New York: 203.3 vs Buffalo: 172.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 23.2 23
NYJ Score 20.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 17.7 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 203.3 / 172.0 272.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards 76.9 / 126.7 121.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 280.3 / 298.7 393.0 / 359.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.2 / 5.1 6.7 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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