DENVER
BRONCOSDEN
3-3 | Road
33
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTSNO
2-4 | Home
10
Key Game
KEY GAME
Adam Prentice
#46 | Fullback@
KEY GAME
Nathan Shepherd
#93 | Defensive Tackle| Player | |
|---|---|
| Adam Prentice | None-None |
| Nathan Shepherd | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
SAINTS
0%
BRONCOS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
DEN By 1-6 points
15.4%
DEN By 7-13 points
13.2%
NO By 1-6 points
16.9%
NO By 7-13 points
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
25.26
DENVER
New Orleans
27.95
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Denver
20
DENVER
New Orleans
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Saints
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Saints (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Saints (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 53.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2025
DEN @ NO
28 - 19
Oct 17, 2024
DEN @ NO
33 - 10
Nov 29, 2020
NO @ DEN
31 - 3
Nov 13, 2016
DEN @ NO
25 - 23
Oct 28, 2012
NO @ DEN
14 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+38.6% more
New Orleans: 1.8
vs
Denver: 1.3
First Downs (L5)
+16.1% more
New Orleans: 18.8
vs
Denver: 16.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+16.0% more
New Orleans: 0.4
vs
Denver: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+15.2% more
New Orleans: 205.5
vs
Denver: 178.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
25.3
33
NO Score
28.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.8 / 16.2
15.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards
205.5 / 178.4
174.0 / 164.0
Rushing Yards
95.5 / 108.8
97.0 / 225.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.29 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards
301.0 / 287.2
271.0 / 389.0
Turnovers
1.8 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
4.9 / 5.1
4.1 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -4.6
NO
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -4.6
NO
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.8
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -3.4
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DEN
NO
DEN
ML
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
TTL
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
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